Guaranteed Win

Prayer

What Are My Chances?

If you ever follow a sport, a particular game, through a website or app, it often includes what’s known as the win probability. It’s a percentage based on a combination of statistics - who’s the home team, how talented the teams are (they have all sorts of ways of quantifying that information into hard numbers), in baseball - who the starting pitchers are is going to make a big difference. All sorts of data gets plugged into the equation.

If you’re following that game on something like ESPN’s gamecast, that percentage will change as the game goes on, one team takes a big lead and the later it goes into the game, the win probability will increase.

But certain events can cause that percentage to swing wildly - all of a sudden the probability heavily favors one team and then a single play will shift the probability 40-50% points or more in the opposite direction.

Here’s a great example, from the recent NCAA men’s basketball tournament - University of Virginia, two seed, was playing Furman University, a fifteen seed. Based on the win probability chart, UVA was highly favored to win from the get go - about 80%. This timeline shows the progression of the win probability throughout the game - UVA virtually the whole way.

There’s a few moments in second half, Furman caught up (they’d been behind) and actually pulled slightly ahead. But even then, Furman’s win probability never gets very high.

UVA pulls back ahead, win probability shoots back quickly to favor them highly. Then, at the very end of the game. Six seconds left, UVA with a two point lead and they have the ball. All they have to do is get it in bounds and run out the clock - six seconds. Furman is going to try to foul them immediately, that would send UVA to the free throw line - if they sank both baskets, they’d have a four point lead, game over. At this point they have a 90% probability of winning.

But the guy throwing the in bounds pass makes a terrible throw, just lobs it up in the air, Furman intercepts it, quick pass, boom, guy nails the 3-pointer, Furman takes a one point lead with just over two seconds left, which wins the game for them. You can see on the image the win probability takes a huge swing on that one play.

Great example of a single event that changes everything.

There is no greater event in swing of win probability than what we’re talking about this morning - resurrection of Jesus Christ. It was, literally, the biggest game changer ever.

One moment - sin and suffering, death and despair - has an absolute lock, it seems. The Son of God has been crucified at the hands of men through an absolute corruption of justice, experiencing a brutal and unjust death. He lays in a tomb sealed shut. Win probability, 99.9%.

Then, as dawn breaks on that third day, Jesus rises to new life - the stone is rolled away and he emerges, victorious. Death has been defeated. Win probability, 100%. It’s game over. Let the taunting begin: Where, o death, is your victory. Where, o death, is your sting?

I say that this morning because I believe that believing in the resurrection is hard - and I mean that in two ways.

For some, simply the idea of resurrection seems impossible. For folks who have a strongly naturalistic worldview, who have a hard time with miracles in general, the idea of something supernatural like this happening is too much. Can’t believe it. That idea that Jesus of Nazareth actually rose physically after having been dead several days. No way that could happen.

You might lean in that direction - and I want to acknowledge that, though it’s not the focus of my message this morning - I do want to take a few moments to address that question. There is very good evidence for the reality of resurrection, enough evidence that the claim that Jesus actually rose from the dead is a reasonable conclusion and indeed, I believe, the most rationale explanation for the evidence, based on the set of facts that are generally agreed upon by the vast majority of scholars, both Christian scholars and nonbelievers.

Some of those facts are included in 1 Corinthians 15, which is thought to be the earliest proclamation of faith, vs. 3-8: For what I received I passed on to you as of first importance: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, 4 that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures, 5 and that he appeared to Cephas, and then to the Twelve. 6 After that, he appeared to more than five hundred of the brothers and sisters at the same time, most of whom are still living, though some have fallen asleep. 7 Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles, 8 and last of all he appeared to me also, as to one abnormally born.

1 Corinthians was a letter Paul wrote to the church in Corinth somewhere around the year 55 AD, just 22 years or so after the resurrection of Jesus - so most of the eyewitnesses are still alive (way of saying, go ask them, they’ll tell you the same). But notice how Paul begins: “what I received I passed on to you as of first importance”. In other words, this message (Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day and so on) - that message was already being passed on. It’s believed that testimony was being shared in written form within a few years of Jesus’ resurrection.

This writing points to lines multiple lines of evidence - that the disciples spoke early of Jesus’ resurrection (it wasn’t a later legend), it speaks of many, many eyewitnesses who confirmed what happened - and who saw it at the same time (speaks against the idea of it being simply a hallucination), and finally, it specifically mentions both James (who was Jesus’ brother) and Paul himself as eyewitnesses. That’s a a critical point, because they were two who were not believers beforehand - they were skeptics who turned to faith in Jesus because they had seen the risen Jesus.

There’s so much more to say about that, so let me just leave you with this: If this is something you wrestle with or have questions about - or you want to learn more about the evidence, I’d be happy to sit down and talk with you about it, in fact, I’d welcome it.

But my focus is not struggling with belief in whether or not the resurrection actually happened, but more in the believing in the ramifications of it. What it means to trust that it actually did happen, and how that it changes everything - do we really trust that?!

This is by far not a new struggle - the earliest Christians, including the church in the city of Corinth, had serious doubts.

What Paul is addressing in this part of his letter, why he’s reminding them of what he preached to them, and what they believed - because there were people in that church who had doubts about the resurrection of the dead…listen to what Paul writes them: 1 Corinthians 15:12-19...

But if it is preached that Christ has been raised from the dead, how can some of you say that there is no resurrection of the dead? 13 If there is no resurrection of the dead, then not even Christ has been raised. 14 And if Christ has not been raised, our preaching is useless and so is your faith. 15 More than that, we are then found to be false witnesses about God, for we have testified about God that he raised Christ from the dead. But he did not raise him if in fact the dead are not raised. 16 For if the dead are not raised, then Christ has not been raised either. 17 And if Christ has not been raised, your faith is futile; you are still in your sins. 18 Then those also who have fallen asleep in Christ are lost. 19 If only for this life we have hope in Christ, we are of all people most to be pitied.

It seems they were OK with the idea of Jesus being raised from the dead, but that they doubted that they themselves would be resurrected, that they would share in Jesus’ resurrection.

Paul counters that by arguing that if there is no such thing as resurrection from the dead, if that’s not a possibility, then it wasn’t possible for Jesus, either, he hasn’t been raised from the dead. They are one and the same, you can’t separate the two. Either resurrection is possible or it isn’t.

And if Jesus didn’t rise from the dead then there’s no victory, death wins. Sin wins. Hope losses and our faith is, as Paul writes, futile.

Now, Paul’s insistence on believing in the resurrection is not because it needs to be true (mean he’d just been wasting his time going from city to city preaching about it), but because it is true (he was one of the eyewitnesses), and because it is true, it changes everything! It is the complete shift in win probability, a guaranteed win.

And that’s what I want to speak to this morning - what it means to live as what you might call, resurrection people, people who live in confidence of the reality of the resurrection.

Living in Confidence of the Resurrection

I would guess that most of you know the experience of watching a sports event in which your favored team is playing, stakes are high - it’s a playoff game, a championship. And it could go either way. It’s a close game. That nervousness rises up, what’s going to happen? Will they win?

A dear friend of mine from seminary, Thomas, his wife, Beth, is from Wales. Wales is a small country that borders England, part of the United Kingdom. Now Wales only has a population of 3 million plus while England has over 56 million. They are great rivals in rugby, but Wales is definitely the underdog.

Thomas and Beth are in Wales at her family home, and her Dad is watching the rugby match between Wales and England, one in which England is heavily favored, win probability percentage skews their way, big time. But somehow, Wales is hanging in there. And then comes the big play - one of the Wales’ players gets the ball and he is running for the goal line. If he scores, Wales will win.

He’s running and running. And Beth’s dad is out of his chair, and he is down on his hands and knees, screaming at the TV screen, completely red-faced, “Run, boy, run!” The boy does run and not only does he run, but he scores and Wales wins the match. Huge victory! The underdog snatched victory away from the favorites, David defeated Goliath.

Here’s the thing. The game was not live. They had already played the match. Beth’s dad was watching a recorded version of the game, a game that he already knew the outcome of. He knew Wales had won. Victory was guaranteed.

This is a picture of what believing in the resurrection is all about. What it means to live in confidence of the resurrection. Beth’s Dad was watching the game as a live action match, in the present moment - but with full confidence of what the outcome would be - that the win probability percentage was 100%, a guaranteed win.

Paul describes how the victory is going to play out: 1 Corinthians 15:22-24, 26: For as in Adam all die, so in Christ all will be made alive (all those in Jesus). 23 But each in turn: Christ, the firstfruits; then, when he comes, those who belong to him. 24 Then the end will come, when he hands over the kingdom to God the Father after he has destroyed all dominion, authority and power...The last enemy to be destroyed is death.

What would it be like to live with that confidence, trusting fully that no matter what else happens in life, this will be the outcome? Guaranteed win by Jesus, win probability, 100%. His kingdom will prevail. Every other power, everything that is in opposition to him will either bow in obedient submission or be destroyed. And most of all, death. There will be no more death (that’s a mind-boggling statement, to live in a world where there is no death).

To take a moment to think about all the things that worry us, or anger us, cause us fear or trepidation, because we forget the power of the resurrection, what exactly Jesus accomplished in rising to new life, rising in victory. What it would be like to see those things in light of all that Jesus’ resurrection promises?

When we face hardships, suffering, a difficult diagnosis, getting old and all its aches and pains, a child who’s gone astray, deep divisions in what once was a loving family.

Listen to what Paul says about dealing with suffering, Romans 8:17-18, Now if we are children, then we are heirs—heirs of God and co-heirs with Christ, if indeed we share in his sufferings in order that we may also share in his glory. I consider that our present sufferings are not worth comparing with the glory that will be revealed in us.

Think about that for a moment, that’s a remarkable statement: our present sufferings - whatever it is in life that you are currently struggling with, I want you to have that in your mind right now - that difficulty, that thing that’s causing you heartache and sleepless nights, just weighing on you because you don’t know how it’s going to turn out. It is not worth comparing. Don’t bother, waste of time - it cannot hold a candle - to the glory that will be revealed in us, the resurrection life God will pour into us when Jesus returns. It’s going to be so full of glory and power and zoe (spiritual life)…you’ll be like, I think I vaguely remember experiencing some difficulty.

Now, that doesn’t mean present sufferings don’t hurt. Aren’t terrible to deal with. Hurting stinks, let’s be honest. But to know, to know, that everything not’s just going to be ok (isn’t that what we tell each other?), it’s going to be incredible, more incredible than you can even begin to imagine. That paints our sufferings in a whole new light.

Or consider this. Listen to how Paul finished 1 Corinthians 15, this great chapter on the resurrection, vs. 58, Therefore, my dear brothers and sisters, stand firm. Let nothing move you. Always give yourselves fully to the work of the Lord, because you know that your labor in the Lord is not in vain.

Paul is reminding us that because of the resurrection, everything that we do for Jesus, all the ways we give of ourselves for the sake of others - none of that will have been a waste of time. In ways that we can’t even begin to see, it will have served God’s greater, eternal purposes. It will have been used for God’s glory.

What a difference it makes when we approach the way we live for God, to know, again, to know, that because of the guaranteed win of Jesus, that people we’ve poured into (no matter how they responded), service we’ve done at the church, things we’ve done that seemed to have born no fruit, have made no difference - that all of it will have made a difference because of the resurrection of Jesus.

One more thought - It’s easy to look around at what’s happening in our world and get discouraged or angry (a lot of us are carrying a lot of anger), or we’re fearful, we feel helpless. We watch the news, there’s just some insane things happening in the world.

Maybe it’s just more on a personal level - my career isn’t working out the way I thought it would, that I’d be further along in life a this point. Struggles in your marriage or with your kids. You’re harboring anger. Resentment even.

But this is the promise of the resurrection, guaranteed victory. Kingdom of God will prevail - every other dominion, authority and power - even death itself, will be destroyed! Evil you see in world - it will not win out. Those who are corrupt and seem to get away with it - they will not. By the way, that means all the ways you and I are fighting against God - guess who’s going to win out? God’s good, his justice, he will reign supreme - and thanks be to God!

Let me finish with this, some things I want to encourage you to take with you. Always, as a part of our teaching time, I encourage those in our congregation to engage in spiritual disciplines, what we call soul-training exercises. Habits we seek to undertake in order to center our lives on Jesus and to become more like him - because it doesn’t just happen, we share a vital role in our spiritual growth.

But first a word to those of you this morning who don’t believe, or perhaps have fallen away - maybe you don’t know where you stand. Wherever you are in life, Jesus wants you to share life in him. He wants you to know the gift of eternal life that he offers - and it’s a sure bet, win probability, 100%.

Beautiful thing is, Jesus offers it freely. He did the work - that message that Paul received and passed on to the Corinthians, we’re passing on to you…Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, he was buried and raised on the third day. He lives today and is inviting you to place your faith in him, receive the gift of forgiveness and new life in Jesus.

You can do it at any moment, including this one. If you have questions, want to learn more about what it means to be a follower of Jesus, please come talk to me or, if you already have a friendship with someone here, talk to them.

For those of you who are already believers, my heart for you (for me) is that we would grow in our confidence of the reality of the resurrection. Let me offer you a few ways to do just that.

If you’re in a place of suffering right now and it’s proving to be a difficult time, take Romans 8:18 with you this week. Memorize, recite it daily, pray through it. For I consider that our present sufferings are not worth comparing to the glory that will be revealed in us.

Another practice to grow in confidence of the resurrection is by entrusting all you do to the Lord - our work for him is not in vain. Make that a short prayer throughout the day, Lord, offer this to you, whatever work it is (time with your family, to love them well), Sunday morning worship, engaged in some ministry or service to someone, your job...

Finally, in those moments you find yourself worried about the future, or angered over current state of politics, tragic events, pray a prayer reminding yourself that one day, after every dominion, authority and power - death itself, will be destroyed. Jesus will hand the kingdom to the father. He will rule over it all.

That, my friends, is the promise of the resurrection of Jesus. Guaranteed. 100% win probability. Bet on it.