2.19.23 5.4.2025 Risk Analysis Matthew 8.18-34

Start:

Entice: Humans are basically risk assessors. While it is true that there are some who are risk-takers seeking the next adrenaline-rush, most of us have a more actuarial approach. We like to know, understand, and weigh the risk and calculate the ultimate cost before we do anything. This is even true of the decision to follow Jesus.

Engage: What is your story of risk-taking like? Are you a cost counter or a “let’s go for it type?” Today we are going to look at three episodes from the life of Jesus. We will examine three situations where individuals just like us must consider the cost of following Jesus. A quick preview of these circumstances and people.

One risked the kind of obscurity he probably feared, the other deeper commitment than he had imagined.

The second story describes physical risk and a flawed conception of who Jesus was and is.

The last story is about how we assess our priorities in a sometimes-confusing world.

Expand: What holds these episodes together is how Jesus interacts with those who are interested enough to come to Him, but who need to learn what it takes to stay. Jesus is always teaching about discipleship, in one way or another.

Excite: Ultimately, we are learning what it means to be a disciple. And the learning goes beyond information to making good decisions. The lessons can be

embarrassing,

isolating,

aggravating,

or even puzzling.

When we are finished, we still must make choices about how we will follow Jesus.

To make those choices…

Explore:

It is essential that we understand the risk.

Expand: When we don’t understand the risk, we draw the wrong conclusions about discipleship. Today we have three episodes describing mistaken estimates of the risk involved in discipleship.

Body of Sermon: The first episode details what happens when someone follows for

1 Misguided Reasons.

Matthew 8:18–22 ESV

18 Now when Jesus saw a crowd around him, he gave orders to go over to the other side. 19 And a scribe came up and said to him, “Teacher, I will follow you wherever you go.” 20 And Jesus said to him, “Foxes have holes, and birds of the air have nests, but the Son of Man has nowhere to lay his head.” 21 Another of the disciples said to him, “Lord, let me first go and bury my father.” 22 And Jesus said to him, “Follow me, and leave the dead to bury their own dead.”

1.1 Wrong kind of attachment.

Following Jesus did not lead to the notoriety or status accorded most Rabbi’s. He had no proper home or even a pillow. He chose to live a life of detached ministry.

Attaching yourself to Jesus for some kind of upward mobility or a “Spiritual Selfie” or the perquisites is a bad idea. Every human culture and social structure stands opposed to the claims of Christ.

Others are misguided because they have the

1.2 Wrong sense of commitment.

Thinking that Jesus is ancillary to, or adjacent to, or can be accommodated to other commitments is a common misconception. The chances are that everyone was a little shocked by Jesus’ response. If you follow Jesus for your reasons rather than His, there will always be problems.

Next consider that even His closest associates often misread exactly who Jesus was. We too risk….

2 Misidentifying Jesus

Matthew 8:23–27 ESV

23 And when he got into the boat, his disciples followed him. 24 And behold, there arose a great storm on the sea, so that the boat was being swamped by the waves; but he was asleep. 25 And they went and woke him, saying, “Save us, Lord; we are perishing.” 26 And he said to them, “Why are you afraid, O you of little faith?” Then he rose and rebuked the winds and the sea, and there was a great calm. 27 And the men marveled, saying, “What sort of man is this, that even winds and sea obey him?”

How is that even possible? With all the information? All those who preach and teach?

Two factors contribute to this misidentification of Jesus. The first is

2.1 Big Fear.

The second is that we are

2.2 Little Faiths

When the waves crash and the winds rip, fear and faith are at odds with one another. We need to work on resolving those issue before we get into the boat. We need to be clear about who we are dealing with. The disciples are asking the right question—

The essential, ongoing question—Who is this Jesus?

Finally, we risk

3 Mistaken Priorities.

Matthew 8:28–34 ESV

28 And when he came to the other side, to the country of the Gadarenes, two demon-possessed men met him, coming out of the tombs, so fierce that no one could pass that way. 29 And behold, they cried out, “What have you to do with us, O Son of God? Have you come here to torment us before the time?” 30 Now a herd of many pigs was feeding at some distance from them. 31 And the demons begged him, saying, “If you cast us out, send us away into the herd of pigs.” 32 And he said to them, “Go.” So they came out and went into the pigs, and behold, the whole herd rushed down the steep bank into the sea and drowned in the waters. 33 The herdsmen fled, and going into the city they told everything, especially what had happened to the demon-possessed men. 34 And behold, all the city came out to meet Jesus, and when they saw him, they begged him to leave their region.

In Studying the Gospels this episode comes from what is called the Triple Tradition. Mark, Luke, and Matthew all tell the story. Each uses the incident to teach something vital about Jesus and the priorities of His ministry. Matthew’s telling of the story is briefest and comes right to the point. We are asked 2 questions…

3.1 What is important?

Wealth. Opportunity. Prominence? (If you’ve got a bunch of demoniacs running around your cemetery you are not going to have many visitors). Maybe what is really important is the health of the hurting and afflicted? What does Jesus really think? You wouldn’t know—and Jesus doesn’t say because sometimes He would rather show us that shove us.

The next question about our priorities is related to the first but goes even deeper.

3.2 What is valued?

People or Pigs?

Promise of freedom or potential profit?

Escape or engagement?

Shut Down

When we become a disciple

We should value people more than perceptions of them.

We should learn that the identity of Jesus is not a projection of our wishes or desires.

We should discover a lifetime relationship rather than a photo-op or “selfie” with a celebrity.

Is it hard? Yes. It was hard in notable circumstances with miracles being performed amid storms and demons and the hustle and bustle of public acclaim. Oddly, it’s even more difficult now. We face a different kind of noise, more difficult to tune out as we look for the right motivation to understand and embrace the risk.

The risk now is not feeling left out, or swamped in a boat, or pig-stampeded the risk now is apathy and being overwhelmed by trivia, misinformation, and manipulation.

Know this about Jesus. He did not turn away the first two guys, He saved the disciples, and He delivered the demoniac regardless of what others thought. The risk of discipleship is high. But the grace of God is bigger.